It’s official... The election field is set for state legislative races in Wisconsin, and we now know which incumbent legislators will be running for reelection and which ones will face primary challenges. While the Presidential race at the top of the ticket will garner most of the attention and play a large role in voter turnout, down ticket races in the state Senate and state Assembly will be very interesting this cycle.
Of course, this election cycle is unique, as lawmakers will be running in new legislative districts after the State Supreme Court required new maps to be drawn. And with the new maps comes some political uncertainties. First, while Senate Republicans will return in the majority, the key question is how many seats Democrats can pick up, and whether it will be enough to give them a shot to win the majority in 2026. State Senators run on staggered four-year terms, meaning half of the seats are up in 2024 and the other half are up in 2026. Democrats have four pick-up opportunities this cycle and need to hit most of them to have a shot at the majority in 2026.
While Assembly Republicans can’t guarantee they will return in the majority, the odds are heavily in their favor. New maps will lead to gains for Assembly Democrats, but they would have to essentially run the table to get to a majority. Their pathway could be greatly impacted by top of the ticket dynamics.
Maybe the most interesting development to come out of the Assembly is that Speaker Robin Vos, who is the longest tenured Speaker in the country has avoided a primary this fall. Though he is still facing recall attempts, those efforts will not deny him a return to office next January. While a primary opponent did turn in signatures, that opponent has since dropped out of the race, eliminating any real potential challenge.
Here are some interesting primary races to watch in both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature:
· Senate
o District 4 – This seat will see a July special election in Milwaukee, pitting two current Democratic representatives against each other. Reps. Dora Drake and LaKeshia Myers face off in what used to be Sen. Lena Taylor’s seat. Sen. Taylor held the seat for nearly 20 years. Whoever wins the primary will win the seat, as there is no Republican running in the general election.
o District 16 – This seat became open when Senator Melissa Agard decided to run for Dane County Executive. There is a crowded primary on the Democratic side featuring three current state representatives. They were all required to give up their Assembly seat to run. Reps. Jimmy Anderson, Samba Baldeh, and Melissa Ratcliffe will square off in August for the opportunity to replace Agard. No Republican has filed to run in the seat, so similar to the 4th Senate District, this is a winner take all primary.
o District 20 – This seat features Republican incumbent Senator Dan Feyen, who is being challenged by former GOP State Representative Tim Ramthun. Feyen is a member of Senate leadership and is the perceived favorite against Ramthun who unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 2022 (garnering 6% of the primary vote).
· Assembly
o AD 6 – In this northeastern Wisconsin seat, two GOP incumbents – Reps. Peter Schmidt and Behnke – will square off for the opportunity to remain in the Assembly. Behnke moved into the 6th Assembly District to challenge Schmidt after he was drawn out of his current district.
o AD 24 – This Germantown/Menomoniee Falls area seat may be the most interesting primary of the election season, as it pits Republican legislators Janel Brandtjen and Dan Knodl against each other. Brandtjen has been an outspoken critic of Speaker Vos and Knodl is a sitting Senator who lost his seat due to the new maps. He is moving into AD 24 to run for this safe GOP seat.
o AD 55 – In this Oshkosh area seat, veteran GOP lawmaker Mike Schraa will face-off against Republican freshmen legislator Nate Gustafson. Political insiders thought Schraa (63) might retire from the legislature and were somewhat surprised when he decided to run for reelection. However, they were more surprised when Gustafson announced he would challenge Schraa. The winner of this primary is positioned to win the general election.
o AD 86 – This seat has a similar set-up to AD 55, as the new district has two sitting GOP legislators drawn into it. Reps. John Spiros and Donna Rozar are two accomplished veteran legislators who will face each other in the race for this Marshfield area seat.
