With the November election only days away, most people are focused on the race for the White House, but there will be many interesting races to watch that will shape the future political make-up of the Wisconsin Legislature – especially after the implementation of new legislative maps. The implementation of new maps will perhaps have the most immediate impact to the State Assembly where Republicans have maintained large comfortable majorities for the past decade. That cushion will not be the case for the next several cycles and instead we will likely see tightening of the margins and potentially a flip from GOP to Dem.

Currently out of the 99 seats, the GOP holds 64 seats to the Dems 34 (with one vacancy). While elections almost always yield surprises, if Trump v Harris ends up as close as polling says it will, the below twelve seats will be the most impactful toward the new makeup of the Assembly. While Republicans are expected to return with a majority, the tighter margins will likely lead to a new dynamic in the Assembly and potentially a need for more bipartisan compromise on more issues than what has been the norm. 

We are starting with the assumption that safe and likely seats in both houses provide for a 46-41 Republican majority, leaving the below 12 seats to define the final margin.  Republicans can go 4-8 and still maintain the majority, democrats would have to go 9-3 to take it. 

Incumbents Face Challenges in New Districts

·        Assembly District 21

Incumbent Rep. and Joint Finance Committee member Jessie Rodriguez is running for re-election in south Milwaukee, where redistricting has shifted her seat to the left, making the race highly competitive. Her challenger, Democrat David Marstellar, a floriculturist and grassroots advocate, aims to capitalize on the district's new 54% Democratic lean in hopes of securing a win.

·        Assembly District 26

Freshman Republican Rep. Amy Binsfield is playing defense to maintain her new Assembly seat in what is now a 52% Democratic-lean Sheboygan area seat. Challenging Binsfield is Democratic Joe Sheehan, a former school superintendent and economic development executive.

·        Assembly District 30

Representative Shannon Zimmerman is seeking to maintain his Western Wisconsin district, which includes Hudson and River Falls. The new district moved 5 points to the left, and it now is just at 51% lean Republican in a fast-changing part of the state. Zimmerman, a seasoned Finance Committee member and businessman, is being challenged by Democratic Alison Page, a nurse and health care administrator.

·        Assembly District 51

Seasoned Republican Rep. Todd Novak has demonstrated in past races he can prevail in his southwestern Wisconsin left-leaning seat. However, his previously purple district shifted 5 points to the left now tracking at 55% Democratic. Facing off against Novak is Elizabeth Grabe, a farmer and realtor from Mount Horeb.

·        Assembly District 61

Freshman Republican Rep. Bob Donovan, who is former Milwaukee County Council member, moved into this district after seeing his current district turn solid blue. Donovan, who hails from Greenfield, is now running in the AD 61^st which includes Hales Corners and Greendale. Challenging Donovan in this 50/50 seat is LuAnn Bird, a caregiver, school board member and former Executive Director of the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin.

·        Assembly District 85

After redistricting, Republican Rep. Pat Snyder also faced a decision – stay or move into what is largely his former district that surrounds Wausau. Synder decided to take his chances in the new 85^th, which has shifted 2 points to the left, to a 51% lean GOP district. Snyder, who has outperformed in previous elections, is facing off against Democratic Yee Leng Xiong, a local official and non-profit executive. 

·        Assembly District 91

If there is a parallel Dem redistricting version to Rep. Moses and the 92^nd, current Democratic Rep. Jodi Emerson would be it. Emerson’s Eau Claire area seat now consists of 60% of new territory, which shifted her solid blue seat to a 54% lean Dem seat. Current Rep. Karen Hurd was drawn into this district but decided to take a pass and instead move to a solid red open seat in the 69^th. Challenging Emerson now is Michele Skinner, a member of the Eau Claire County Board of Supervisors and Altoona Lake District.

·        Assembly District 92

This is border-line lean 53% GOP district just makes it into the competitive category. Current Republican Rep. and practicing chiropractor, Clint Moses is hoping to hold onto his seat in a district where roughly sixty percent of the constituency is new to him. On the Democratic side, Joe Plouff, a former Assembly representative himself, is hoping his previous political experience gives him some leverage in the new 92^nd.

·        Assembly District 94

In all the changes with redistricting, some things never change- as is the case in AD 94. Rep. Steve Doyle is once again facing challenger Ryan Huebsch. Doyle has won his largely unchanged district six times since 2012, including winning in 2022 over Huebsch by 756 votes. This one will once again be a toss-up come November.

Open Seats (No Current Legislator Running)

·        Assembly District 53

Spanning from Neenah up to Menasha, the 53^rd is deemed highly competitive by most metrics. The district leans very slightly to the left – at about 53% lean Dem, but the GOP is running a candidate, Dean Kaufert with significant name ID which could help them in pick this up in November. Kaufert represented the area as an Assembly Rep from 1991 to 2015, followed by a stint as Neenah mayor from 2014 to 2022. Challenging Kaufert is Duane Shukoski, also a Neenah resident and longtime Kimberly Clark employee.

·        Assembly District 88

The new AD 88th is a 50/50 seat, with redistricting shifting the former red district around De Pere, Allouez, and Bellevue 5 points to the left. The district is now open, with two new candidates vying for the position. Republican small business owner Ben Franklin of De Pere emerged victorious in the primary against challenger Phil Collins. On the Democratic side, former business systems officer and Brown County Democratic Party chair Christy Welch, also of De Pere, did not face a primary challenge, potentially giving her a bit more runway than Franklin. However, in this 50/50 seat, it’s anyone’s guess what November will bring.

·        Assembly District 89

Like the 88th, AD 89th is also a 50/50 open seat that includes Ashwaubenon and eastern Green Bay. Democrat and Assistant District Attorney Ryan Spaude is running against Brown County Board Chairman and Republican Patrick Buckley. Both candidates are from Green Bay and have a background in local government, making this new seat an interesting one to follow.